As we enter the new year, here are some selected predictions that might happen next year. Prediction is difficult, but we can at least hopefully find the existing trends we can extrapolate to the coming 12 months. Welcome to our Predictions for 2024.
Quantum Predictions for 2024
More Qubits
The qubit count continues to increase. We saw the 1,000 qubit barrier broken in 2023. We think we can see a doubling from here. Towards the end of 2024, we think 2,000 qubits will have been achieved or at least very close. Scaling means that once we have breached the 1,000 number as we have in 2023, it should not be vastly harder to reach 2,000. Maybe not quite Moore’s law, but getting a few hundred more should be achievable going from 1,121 leaves a gap of 889 Qubits to get to 2,000! Perhaps its too early to predict exponential qubit growth, but curves showing past qubit counts against time, do have a hockey stick uptick.
IBM Quantum Computing
Last year 2023 saw trillions of (quantum) circuits being run. We expect that trend to continue. The IBM Quantum Experience is undoubtedly one of the most popular platforms and IBM has created and now supports QIskit which is also the most popular quantum computing framework. We think this position will be hard to unseat. Like it or loathe it, Qiskit has cemented itself into the core of quantum software development among the myriad of quantum tools, programming languages, and frameworks that exist. We don’t see this changing in 2024. We do think the spin-off of developing cutting-edge quantum products will help to make IBM seem relevant, with its other products experiencing a halo effect.
Perhaps the biggest threat for IBM will be AWS Braket, the service from Amazon, which allows circuits to be run on a variety of hardware vendors. Much as AWS is at the heart of many cloud solutions, we can expect that Amazon will adopt the AWS playbook, expanding hardware offerings and integrations.
End of NISQ?
There are rumblings that we are at the end of the NISQ era. Which is to say building error-prone quantum devices and finding ways to correct the errors might be at an end. In its place, more logical error-corrected qubits are being developed by researchers and companies such as Quera Computing.
New Company Hits the Public Market: Zapata AI
Zapata AI works with a growing ecosystem of partners including Amazon, Google, Andretti Autosport, IBM, NVIDIA, Quantinuum, IonQ, and DARPA. By providing enterprises with a complete AI software stack and advanced AI models, Zapata AI aims to provide AI and machine learning software solutions. Zapata AI, a software company specializing in industrial generative AI, is set to become a publicly listed company in the US following a business combination agreement with Andretti Acquisition.
QC gains more mainstream coverage
Likely an easy enough trend to spot. We anticipate that because of the excitement around Generative AI, some of that buzz will bleed over to Quantum. Quite simply people will not want to miss out on the opportunities that quantum could offer, as many naysayers did with AI. As ChatGPT made headlines around the globe and became one of the fastest-growing services ever recorded, could Quantum have its own ChatGPT moment?
Public Quantum Companies get more visibility
There are now a considerable number of publicly listed companies involved in Quantum. Companies from IBM to Google to Intel are some of the goliath tech companies that have quantum as part of their activities. However, there are now pure-play quantum companies such as IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and soon-to-be Zapata AI that investors can add to their portfolios to get exposure to quantum technologies.
More Quantum Hype and More Anti-Hype
We don’t see the hype dying down quite yet. Maybe there will be a Quantum Winter, but we think unlikely. There is a real danger with quantum technologies that they are poorly understood and therefore get extrapolated beyond meaning. Many writers and journalists do not understand that quantum computing isn’t just a way of accelerating existing machines and that only specific algorithms offer advantages and even then myriad technical challenges prevail. We do think there’ll be some response to this and we have already seen this with Dulwich Quantum which aims at the quantum hype bubble.
Generative AI and LLMs
Undoubtedly one of the biggest tech stories of 2023. We expect this to continue with numerous LLMs released from several existing and new players. As yet, no quantum flavor (but there are hybrid quantum classical neural networks). Could we see workflows that aim to take advantage of Quantum computing either theoretically or practically?
Quantum Simulation
Impressed with the cuQuantum suite from NVIDIA. cuQuantum is an SDK of optimized libraries and tools for accelerating quantum computing workflows. With NVIDIA Tensor Core GPUs, developers can use cuQuantum to speed up quantum circuit simulations based on state vector and tensor network methods by orders of magnitude making it easier for users to simulate quantum circuits. We expect companies such as NVIDIA to further bolster their quantum offering and software.
AMD, Intel?
When is AMD going to go all in on Quantum? Intel is now the only traditional pure-play semiconductor co. to work on Quantum chips as part of their R&D. Might it be Prudent for Lisa Su (CEO of AMD) to get involved in the quantum space, dip a toe in, or such like?