Amazon AI executive Peter DeSantis has forecast the arrival of the first commercially useful small-scale quantum computers within five to seven years, marking the first specific timeline offered by the company on this emerging technology. DeSantis, recently appointed to lead a new Amazon organization focused on AI models, chips, and quantum computing, anticipates a growth pattern mirroring Moore’s Law once these initial machines are operational. “I actually do believe, over the next five to seven years, we’re going to start to see the first commercially useful small-scale quantum computers,” he told CNBC. From there, he predicts they will become more powerful each year and be able to tackle more complex problems, potentially revolutionizing fields like chemistry and material science by solving problems intractable for conventional computers.
Peter DeSantis Predicts Five-to-Seven Year Timeline for Commercial Quantum Computers
DeSantis now heads a new Amazon organization encompassing artificial intelligence models, chip development, and quantum computing, signaling a significant consolidation of investment and focus for the tech giant. This prediction arrives amidst growing competition in the quantum field, with major players like Microsoft, Google, and IBM, alongside numerous startups, all vying for dominance. Amazon unveiled its Ocelot quantum computing chip last year, specifically designed to address the critical issue of error correction, a persistent hurdle in quantum system development. DeSantis clarified that quantum computers won’t simply be faster versions of existing machines; rather, they will excel at solving a distinct class of problems currently intractable for classical computers, offering substantially improved solutions, as he explained to CNBC.
He anticipates that after these initial small-scale computers arrive, the field will experience growth analogous to Moore’s Law, with capabilities expanding rapidly year after year. “The problems that I would think are going to be tackled first are the ones that are quantum-based problems, so things like chemistry, material science,” DeSantis said, adding that these are areas where “today we cannot run high enough fidelity simulations on a classic computer.” He believes quantum computing will unlock progress in these fields once sufficiently powerful machines become available.
I actually do believe, over the next five-to-seven years, we’re going to start to see the first commercially useful small-scale quantum computers.
Ocelot Chip and Quantum Computing’s Potential in Chemistry & Material Science
The pursuit of practical quantum computing is rapidly shifting from theoretical possibility to tangible engineering, with Amazon now placing a timeframe on the arrival of machines capable of addressing real-world challenges. A key distinction, according to DeSantis, is that “A quantum computer is going to solve a very particular type of problem that isn’t solved well today with a classic computer, and it’s going to solve it much better.” The initial applications of this technology are expected to concentrate on fields demanding complex simulations, specifically chemistry and material science.
From there, we’re going to see something that looks a lot like Moore’s Law, where they’re going to get bigger and bigger every year, and they’re going to be able to tackle more and more interesting problems.
