In the white heat of the competitive quantum computing landscape, renowned physicist Pan Jianwei discusses the aspirations for achieving general purpose quantum computers that would see the control and coordination of millions of qubits reported in the new outlet Yicai.
Pan Jianwei is a highly respected Chinese physicist often credited with significant advancements in quantum physics, particularly quantum communication and quantum computation. He has played a pivotal role in the development of quantum satellite communications. He predicted quantum computers at a recent conference, the World Laureates Association Forum in Shanghai.
Towards General Purpose Quantum Computers
Current state-of-the-art quantum computers typically embody under 1,000 qubits. A qubit is a quantum bit, and the quantum equivalent is the classical bit. However, it has some very distinct properties. There are many types of qubits out there, all jostling for the multi-billion dollar market, which could explode once a massive number of qubits come on stream. For example, Atom Computing recently announced their 1,000 qubit machines, and IBM is on track to break the 1K qubit level soon and currently sports 433 qubits.
No one can say what technology will win out, and it’s not simply enough to create a vast number of qubits if those qubits are not addressable or have levels of fidelity expected. And we’re not even discussing the erroneous nature of all calculations, which further cuts down the amount of power any machine has. Not all devices are created equal, but qubit count can serve at least as a straightforward benchmark for machines. Quantum Volume is another measure of quantum prowess.
Desktop Quantum Computers?
Perhaps the dream of desktop quantum computers is far away, but if you want one, you can buy one, although it won’t have more than a handful of qubits limiting the size of circuits you can run. But of course, when looking back at classical computers, we did start with room-sized machines, and now we have computers in our pockets in the form of smartphones.
Machine sizes may shrink in a few years, but as much computation already happens in the cloud, desktop quantum computers might be a moot point. So, while a general purpose quantum computing may happen, we don’t think it will happen on your desk as, currently, many devices require specialist equipment such as cooling or may not shrink quite as quickly.
Cold War on Quantum Tech?
With the CHIPS Act forbidding the export of American technology to China, some, including us, feel like we are in the midst of a cold-war technology race. Some core technologies, such as AI and Quantum Computing, are at the heart of that race.
The CHIPS (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors) Act is a United States federal law designed to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, research, and development. This act was created in response to the global semiconductor shortage, which highlighted the strategic importance of these components in various industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, and telecommunications.
Suppose there is any edge to be had in Quantum Computing (and we think there is). In that case, governments worldwide are looking to exploit the sector because the potential impact could be huge for various industries, such as defense, which may concentrate the minds of many. Quantum could be pivotal in communication, networking, cryptography, and not just computing.
China has a few companies exploring quantum computing. You can read more about the Chinese Quantum Computing effort, which includes some household names such as Alibaba and Tencent.
Who is Pan Jianwei?
Educated in China and abroad, Pan Jianwei received his Ph.D. from the University of Vienna, Austria, where he worked under the tutelage of Anton Zeilinger, a notable physicist in the field of quantum entanglement. Pan has since been influential in pushing the boundaries of quantum communication. He led the project that resulted in the launch of Micius in 2016, the world’s first quantum communications satellite, which conducted the first intercontinental quantum-secured communication.
Pan’s work has been recognized with numerous awards, and he is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. His contributions are not only limited to scientific research but also extend to the development of quantum technologies in practical applications, which positions China at the forefront of this revolutionary field. He continues contributing to the growth of quantum science and technology with his ongoing research and leadership in various scientific initiatives.
Pan Jianwei’s team’s development of the Jiuzhang 3.0 quantum supercomputer prototype represents a significant milestone in quantum computing. Jiuzhang 3.0’s ability to solve a Gaussian boson sampling problem much faster than the current most powerful classical supercomputer, Frontier, demonstrates what is known as “quantum advantage” or “quantum supremacy.” This term refers to a quantum computer’s ability to perform a specific computational task exponentially faster than the best-known algorithms running on classical supercomputers.
The Gap Between Now and General Purpose Quantum Computers?
We are some way from the millions of qubits that many researchers, including Pan Jianwei, have highlighted the need to be created to achieve GPQC or General Purpose Quantum Computers. We are some order of magnitude away, in fact, three to be precise, but the trajectory of getting from 10’s to hundreds to qubits has been relatively rapid, and then from hundreds to a thousand has also been rapid. Currently, some companies are achieving high 10s of qubits, others 100s, and some have breached the 1,000 limit. Atom Computing has 1,000, IBM has 100’s, and IonQ has 10’s, all concurrently.
Universally, all these companies are steadily increasing their qubit count. Estimations of when 1,000,000 qubits turn up are somewhat speculative. But we think it could be entirely achievable within this decade. IBM started with just five qubits in 2018 and, in five years, has managed two orders of magnitude growth (x100) to achieve a 1000x scaling in seven years. It doesn’t seem like a total moonshot. Companies such as PsiQuantum and Universal Quantum have declared their ambition to get to one million qubits.
