A recent article in the publication Nature discusses how the transition to quantum computing could be challenging and costly. When digital computers were introduced, they initially slowed growth in productivity as businesses had to invest in new equipment and learn how to program the devices. The quantum computing revolution could lead to an even more severe and expensive learning curve due to high integration costs, difficulty translating quantum concepts for business managers and engineers, and the threat to cryptography posed by quantum computers.
Despite these challenges, there are ways to accelerate the benefits of quantum computing. These include demonstrating the value of quantum computers for societal challenges, agreeing on a common language and building understanding, and building a quantum internet with secure encryption.
Quantum Computing: A New Revolution
Quantum computing is a rapidly developing field that promises to revolutionise the way we process and analyse information. Unlike digital computers that process binary bits of information (0s and 1s), quantum computers encode information in the quantum state of atoms, electrons and photons, known as qubits. These qubits can represent many states at once and be combined or ‘entangled’, thereby speeding up calculations. However, the transition to quantum computing could be challenging and costly, requiring a complete overhaul of existing systems and processes.
In the long term, businesses that adopt quantum computing could gain a competitive edge. However, in the short term, it’s unclear how commercially valuable these machines will be. The introduction of digital computers in the 1970s and 1980s initially slowed growth in productivity due to the need for businesses to invest in new equipment and learn how to program the devices. A similar dip, known as the productivity paradox, could occur with the introduction of quantum computers.
The Challenges of Quantum Computing
The transition to quantum computing could be more severe and expensive than the digital revolution for three reasons: high integration costs and few short-term rewards; difficulty in translating quantum concepts for business managers and engineers; and the threat to cryptography posed by quantum computers. The introduction of commercial quantum computers could result in economic losses in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of approximately US$13,000 over 15 years, or $310 billion per annum in the United States alone.
“We think that the quantum computing revolution could lead to an even more severe and expensive learning curve, for three reasons: high integration costs and few short-term rewards; difficulty in translating quantum concepts for business managers and engineers; and the threat to cryptography posed by quantum computers.”
Quantum computers will need to be networked with digital computers, and integrating these two different technologies will be difficult and expensive. Firms will still need digital computers for everyday tasks and computations, while quantum computers will be used to solve more complex and specialist problems. Developing hybrid protocols and programs that can work in both situations is much harder than it was to program digital computers in the 1970s.
“In the long run, businesses adopting quantum computing should have a competitive edge over others. Yet, in the short term, it’s unclear to what extent the introduction of these machines will prove commercially valuable.”
Accelerating the Benefits of Quantum Computing
There are ways to accelerate the benefits of quantum computing to society. One way is to demonstrate the value of quantum computers for societal challenges. For example, quantum systems could analyse huge amounts of data for weather forecasting, improving the resilience of the financial system through better modelling of markets, and developing low-carbon technologies to address climate change.
Economists will need to devise a framework for evaluating the financial benefits of quantum computing to encourage firms to invest. Researchers should build proof-of-concept cases, starting by identifying areas in which quantum computers might outperform digital computers for societal grand challenges.
Building Understanding and a Common Language
Quantum technologies operate on principles that are often counterintuitive and outside the comfort zone of many engineers and business managers. At present, there’s no shared language among scientists, engineers and business managers around quantum computing. Misunderstandings and confusion create delays and therefore further costs.
A common semantic and syntactic language for quantum computers needs to be developed. It should be similar to the standardized Unified Modeling Language used for digital computer programming. This will enable scientists, engineers and managers to stay on the same page while they discuss prototypes, test beds, road maps, simulation models and hybrid information-technology architectures.
Building a Quantum Internet with Secure Encryption
Quantum computing threatens to break a widely used protocol for encrypting information. To protect the security of data and communications, firms will need to invest in new mathematical approaches for encryption, or use quantum-based communications systems, such as quantum key distribution.
Integrating quantum computers and quantum communications technologies across a coordinated network — to build a quantum internet — could overcome this security threat and spur growth across many industries. The quantum internet is a network that connects remote quantum devices through a combination of quantum and classical links. This allows distributed quantum computing, in which many devices work together to solve problems, further speeding up computations.
Read More from the Nature Article.