China and the U.S. compete in emerging technologies (ETs) such as 5G networks, Big Data, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI). China’s advancements in these areas threaten U.S. global dominance, leading to a “Tech Cold War” and “AI Arms Race”. This competition has been fueled by China’s assertive technology policies and initiatives like Made in China 2025, Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development, and Digital Silk Road Project. The U.S. and Western states are employing strategies to counter this perceived threat, including bans and export controls directed at Chinese companies.
The Role of Emerging Technologies in International Relations
Emerging technologies (ETs) such as 5G networks, Big Data, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) have become increasingly significant in international affairs. The control over these technologies is no longer confined to the private sector, but has become a strategic national security concern. The unpredictable implications these technologies pose for national security, as well as their potential impact on shifting the Balance of Power due to the economic and military advantages they confer, have heightened sensitivity toward ETs.
China’s technological advancements and assertive technology policy, through initiatives such as Made in China 2025, Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development, and Digital Silk Road Project, have drawn significant attention. These advancements, assessed alongside China’s international economic, geopolitical and military developments, have led to the assumption that China is seeking to challenge the United States’ (US) global primacy. As a result, China has been viewed as a strategic competitor of the US and a growing threat, a notion that proliferated under the Trump administration and has continued during the Biden administration.
The Perception of China as a Threat in the Realm of ETs
China’s advancements in the domain of ETs could conceivably equate to the acquisition of new capabilities, thereby inducing threat perceptions among other global actors. This corresponds to the realist perspective of international affairs: the US views its hegemony as increasingly challenged vis-à-vis a rising China that could adopt an ambitious strategy with escalating demands, thereby threatening a declining state’s vital interests and raising the potential for conflict.
The designation of China’s ET advancements as a threat and their implications deserves systematic academic engagement and theory-informed analysis. Two issues that remain unanswered in spite of the dynamically growing research field of ET studies are: What constitutes a threat in the context of ETs and how does China fit within these criteria? And, once a state is recognized as a threat, how do other states respond?
The Balance of Threat Theory and China’s ET Advancements
The Balance of Threat (BoT) theory, with the power distribution in the international system at its core, is especially relevant to the objectives of this paper, aimed toward examining the “game-changing” potential of ETs. In this perspective, China’s growing ET power is a threat that urges states to (re)consider their balancing options. The latter may vary in intensity and assume different manifestations: first, diplomatic and policy coordination among competitors of the threat; second, the adoption of bans and restrictions/export controls aiming to undermine a rival’s power; and third, strategic alignment excluding or targeting the threat and stating a clear objective of targeting its advancements in the ET domain.
The Response of Western States to China’s ET Threat
The response of Western states to China’s ET threat has been characterized by a variety of strategies, including diplomatic and policy coordination, the adoption of bans and restrictions/export controls, and strategic alignment. These strategies aim to undermine China’s power in the ET domain and counter its advancements. The notion of “gradual balancing” resonates with the characterization of balancing in the domain of ETs, suggesting a measured and incremental approach to countering the perceived threat.
Future Research Directions in the Field of ETs
The dynamically evolving ETs constitute a key strategic area of competition in international relations and call for future research. This concerns especially analyzing state behavior adopted in response to China’s ET threat by focusing on more cases of states adopting specific measures and strategies. In addition, the BoT offers a fruitful avenue of future research by distinguishing not only offensive capabilities but also aggressive intentions.
The latter can be explored in an especially promising way from non-realist perspectives, particularly the constructivist one, given its special attention to the issue of state interaction, national identity, status and historical experiences. At the same time, the analytical framework of this study and conceptualization of external balancing in ETs can lead to further testing while the opposing argument of bandwagoning with the threatening state could also be explored through the relations of China with other friendly nations, most notably Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea.
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