Report Shows Quantum Computing Could Boost UK Productivity by 7% and Add £212bn to GDP

Andy Logan from Oxford Economics presented a scenario in which quantum computing could increase UK productivity by up to 7% by 2045, resulting in an additional £212 billion in gross value added. The modelling, which assumes commercial viability of quantum computing by 2035, projects that each worker would achieve an extra three weeks of productivity per year without working an additional hour. If quantum computing becomes commercially viable earlier, by 2029, the model predicts an 8% productivity increase by 2040, adding more than £200 billion to national GDP. This forecast highlights the potential economic impact of quantum technology and underscores the need for government support to maintain the UK’s competitive edge.

Oxford Economics modelling shows that, if quantum‑enabled use cases first emerge in 2035, the pharmaceutical sector could achieve a 54 % compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and the defence sector a 33 % CAGR by 2050, compared with 4.5 % and 4.9 % respectively in a classical scenario. Dr Nicola Hodson, Chair of IBM UK & Ireland, has highlighted that the quantum-driven acceleration of drug discovery and the optimisation of defence simulations underpin these gains. The United Kingdom, which hosts the continent’s largest quantum start‑up hub and world‑class laboratories in Cambridge, Oxford and Edinburgh, could lift its economy‑wide productivity by up to 8 % by 2050, adding an estimated £284 billion to gross domestic product. The sector’s direct contribution to GDP is projected to rise from £135 million in 2023 to between £2.1 billion and £4.5 billion by 2055, while job creation could reach 148,100 positions, supported by a 4.2 employment multiplier. Without sustained government investment, the country risks falling behind France and Australia, according to the report, and Andy Logan, Director of Oxford Economics, stresses that public and private collaboration is essential to secure adequate funding and infrastructure.

UK Quantum Funding Ten Times Lower Than France and Australia Highlights Need for Government Support

In 2023 the average quantum‑hardware grant awarded to a UK company was roughly one‑tenth of the amount received by firms in France and Australia, with £1 million versus £10 million and £9 million respectively. This shortfall is a structural barrier to scaling prototype devices to the 50-qubit threshold required for practical industry use cases, such as drug-discovery optimisation or defence-grade cryptographic simulations. Modelling assumes that the early commercial viability of quantum computers—projected for 2035—depends on sustained investment in hardware, software, and talent pipelines; a lag in funding would extend the time-to-market and reduce potential productivity gains. Many national defence ministries worldwide have announced large‑scale funding programmes for quantum research, underscoring the technology’s implications for national security and economic resilience. The authors call for a bold, long-term commitment from the UK government, positioning public investment as both a catalyst for private sector growth and a safeguard against the erosion of the country’s quantum-computing productivity advantage.

Quantum Sector Could Generate Over One Hundred Fifty Thousand Jobs by 2055

The Oxford Economics model projects that the United Kingdom’s quantum computing sector could support more than 148,000 jobs by 2055, rising from 5,100 direct positions in 2023 to 26,900 by 2034 and 126,100 by 2045. Only 24 % of these would be within the quantum sector itself; the remainder would be generated in the broader economy through supply‑chain linkages and consumer spending stimulated by quantum‑enabled products. For every ten people employed directly in quantum computing, the model estimates that an additional 32 jobs will materialise elsewhere in the UK economy, reflecting the sector’s high-value-added nature and the breadth of ancillary activities such as software development, specialised manufacturing and data analytics. The growth trajectory is tied to the timing of commercial viability: if quantum computers become viable by 2035, the model assumes a gradual build‑out of the workforce, reaching the 148,000‑job threshold by 2055; an earlier breakthrough projected for 2029 would accelerate job creation, pushing the 126,100‑job milestone to 2045. In both scenarios, the quantum sector’s contribution to productivity—captured in the report as a 7 % economy‑wide boost by 2045—would be amplified by the employment multiplier, reinforcing the argument that quantum computing productivity can drive sustained, high‑skill employment growth across the UK.

The average labour productivity of the UK quantum sector was £128,020 in 2023, more than twice the national average of £61,900. Productivity could lift the entire UK economy by up to 7 % by 2045, and up to 8 % by 2040 if commercial viability is achieved by 2029, translating into an additional £200 billion to national GDP. The sector contributed £135 million to UK GDP in 2023, with projections of £706 million by 2034, £1.7 billion–£3.8 billion by 2045, and £2.1 billion–£4.5 billion by 2055. Gerald Mullally, Interim CEO of Oxford Quantum Circuits, warns that other nations are accelerating their programmes and that the UK must secure bold, long‑term commitment to avoid falling behind in a technology race that will shape future competitiveness. The authors urge the government to act as a strategic investor, customer, and partner. In the absence of decisive action, the report concludes that the UK risks losing its position as a global quantum leader, with implications for national security, industrial competitiveness, and the broader economy.