A recent call to action by Quantum Computing Leaders outlining the risks and benefits of Quantum Computing was published. Quantum computing, while still in its early stages, has significant implications for national prosperity and security. The technology is not yet a security risk or a solution for large-scale industrial problems. Still, developing new approximate methods and commercially exploring business-relevant quantum applications could make it practical soon.
Quantum computers may perform economically impactful computations before they can perform cryptographically relevant ones. The technology could potentially be used for cryptanalysis, posing a risk to national security. However, this risk can be managed by adopting quantum-safe cryptographic protocols.
The following companies and organizations have co-authored the paper:
IBM, T.J. Watson Research Center, CJW Quantum Consulting LLC, Computer Security Division, National Institute of Standards and Technology, evolutionQ, Institute for Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, Strangeworks, Quantonation, Unitary Fund, Microsoft Corporation
Quantum Computing: Potential Benefits and Risks
Quantum computing is an emerging technology with significant national prosperity and security implications. The technology is still in its early stages and does not yet pose security risks or offer solutions for large-scale industrial problems. However, two major trends – the development of new approximate methods and the commercial exploration of business-relevant quantum applications – may enable practical quantum computing shortly.
Quantum Computing and Cryptanalysis
The new approximate methods in quantum computing do not seem likely to alter the resources required for cryptanalysis applied to currently-used cryptosystems. Current and known algorithms for cryptanalysis require circuits of a size exceeding those that current and near-future quantum computers can run. However, improvements in quantum algorithms for these problems are taking place. The cybersecurity risk can be managed by migrating to new quantum-safe cryptographic protocols.
Quantum Computing and Economic Impact
There is a credible expectation that quantum computers can perform economically impactful computations before they can perform cryptographically relevant ones. This information is crucial for those making decisions about the use and future of quantum computing and quantum-safe technologies.
Quantum Computing and National Prosperity
Quantum computers have potential uses for scientific or commercial benefit. Four major trends in the research literature may hasten the realization of useful quantum computing. These trends include variational algorithms, error mitigation, circuit knitting, and commercial exploration and adoption of quantum computers.
Quantum computers could potentially be used for cryptanalysis, posing a risk to national security. However, the circuit sizes needed for cryptographically relevant quantum computing exceed those that can be run by current and near-future quantum computers.
Cryptography will need to be updated to address the threat of quantum computing. Organizations can begin getting quantum-safe by adopting quantum-safe approaches such as quantum key distribution (QKD), quantum random number generation (QRNG), and post-quantum cryptography (PQC).
Conclusion and Recommendations
Quantum computing poses a known, provable, and substantial risk to the cybersecurity infrastructure. However, the risk can be managed by transitioning to post-quantum cryptographic systems. Organizations, academia, the commercial quantum computing sector, and policymakers/regulators should take proactive steps to address these challenges.
An article titled “Assessing the Benefits and Risks of Quantum Computers” was published on January 29, 2024. The authors of this article are Travis L. Scholten, Carl J. Williams, Dustin Moody, Michele Mosca, William L. Hurley, William J. Zeng, Matthias Troyer, and Jay Gambetta. The article was published on arXiv, a platform managed by Cornell University. The article can be accessed through its DOI reference: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2401.16317.
