Recent US Tariffs have spooked the capital markets. They threaten to sideline the quantum computing race in a potential flight to safety. Will recent events in the stock market derail the quantum computing landscape?
The year 2025 has been officially designated as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology by the United Nations. This underscores the growing global recognition of quantum mechanics’ transformative potential across various sectors. This elevated profile could attract greater governmental support. It might also foster more collaborative research initiatives. Additionally, it can ease the recruitment of top talent into the burgeoning quantum computing sector.
Market analysis reports published in early 2025 indicate a robust and expanding quantum computing market. Estimates for the market size in 2025 range from US$1.79 billion to US$1.88 billion, reflecting a strong consensus among different market research entities on the current valuation of this dynamic industry. The alignment of these independent estimations lends credibility to the projected market size. It suggests a considerable level of established activity. There is also commercial interest in quantum computing. Of course, projections are just that, projections, and with the current market turmoil could quantum computing face a demise?
The Quest Into Logical Qubits.
Several key trends are shaping the quantum computing landscape in 2025. These include increased experimentation with logical qubits aimed at improving error correction. There is a growing emphasis on specialized hardware tailored for specific computational problems rather than universal quantum computers. Additionally, enhanced networking capabilities are being developed to connect noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. There are also advancements in the development of improved and novel physical qubits. The increasing focus on logical qubits is a crucial step. It aims to overcome the error-prone nature of current quantum computers. The development of specialized hardware indicates a strategic shift. It focuses on achieving near-term commercial value by addressing specific industry needs.
A major driver of the quantum computing market’s expansion is the substantial investment being made by governments worldwide. This strong governmental backing provides essential funding for research and development. It offers strategic direction for the advancement of quantum technologies. Such commitment from the public sector helps to mitigate risks for private investors and cultivates a supportive ecosystem for innovation. Reports indicate a global race in quantum computing. Significant initiatives are underway in the United States. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, is also advancing. Europe is actively participating as well. This international competition suggests a likely acceleration in the pace of advancements and breakthroughs. Various nations and regions are vying for leadership in this critical technological domain. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in a recent report, emphasized the urgency. The United States must expedite its efforts in quantum technology commercialization. This is crucial to maintain its competitive edge in this global landscape.
Rigetti’s Ambitious Ascent. Scaling Qubits and Cultivating Alliances
Rigetti Computing is strategically focused on enhancing the scalability of its superconducting qubit technology, with ambitious goals set for 2025. The company aims to release a 36-qubit system. It will be based on four 9-qubit chips tiled together by mid-year. The target is a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%. Rigetti also plans to launch a system with over 100 qubits by the end of 2025. They have set a targeted median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% for this system. These scaling objectives demonstrate Rigetti’s strong commitment to increasing the computational power of its quantum processors. Achieving these higher qubit counts is essential. Maintaining high fidelity while increasing qubit counts is crucial for tackling more complex computational problems. It also helps showcase the practical potential of quantum computing.
In late 2024, Rigetti introduced its 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system, which incorporates a noteworthy hardware redesign resulting in improved gate fidelity. Emphasizing enhanced gate fidelity is crucial. It is as important as increasing the number of qubits. This directly influences the accuracy and reliability of quantum computations. Higher gate fidelity leads to fewer errors during quantum operations, thereby bolstering the trustworthiness of the results and enabling the execution of longer and more intricate algorithms.
Rigetti experienced a significant development in early 2025. They established a strategic collaboration agreement with Quanta Computer. Quanta is a major global leader in computer server manufacturing. This partnership could provide Rigetti with substantial resources. It also offers expertise in the crucial areas of hardware development. Additionally, manufacturing will benefit from this partnership. Quanta’s extensive experience in large-scale production could considerably aid Rigetti in scaling its manufacturing capabilities and potentially reducing production costs. Each company is committing over $100 million in investment over the next five years. This commitment underscores the strategic importance of this collaboration. It also highlights the long-term vision.
Rigetti was also selected to participate in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). This choice provides substantial validation for Rigetti’s technological approach. It could open doors to further government funding opportunities. It could also lead to strategic partnerships. DARPA’s QBI program aims to rigorously evaluate and validate the feasibility of achieving utility-scale quantum computing by 2033. Rigetti’s inclusion in this initiative suggests their technology and development roadmap are considered promising by the U.S. Department of Defense.
QphoX, Rigetti, and Qblox collaborated on research. They demonstrated an innovative optical readout technique for superconducting qubits. Advancements in the control and measurement of qubits are fundamental to enhancing the performance and scalability of quantum computers. Optical readout techniques offer the potential for faster qubit state measurements and enhance measurement efficiency. This advancement is critical for executing complex quantum algorithms.
The financial performance of Rigetti in the fourth quarter of 2024 revealed a decrease in revenue. This was compared to the previous year. Revenues were $2.3 million for the quarter and $10.8 million for the full year. The company reported a net loss of $153.0 million for the quarter. This loss was largely due to non-cash charges. These charges were related to changes in the fair value of earn-out and derivative warrant liabilities. Rigetti highlighted noteworthy strategic collaborations and technological advancements in its reports despite this. Although current revenue generation is modest, the company has a strong focus on research and development. Its strategic partnerships also indicate a long-term growth strategy. Rigetti has also secured substantial funding through stock offerings, raising $153.3 million in Q4 2024, which provides crucial capital for continued development efforts.
Rigetti’s CEO acknowledged that their quantum computers are still in the research and development phase. They are not yet ready for practical, everyday use, demonstrating a realistic perspective on the current stage of their technology. Rigetti’s commitment to domestic manufacturing is emphasized by its Fab-1 facility, the industry’s first integrated quantum device manufacturing facility. Analysts suggest this move has shielded the company from some supply chain issues. It aligns with the spirit of the CHIPS Act.
Google’s Quantum Quest. Charting a Course Towards Utility
Google continues demonstrating considerable progress in addressing the critical challenges of error correction and scalability in quantum computing. Their Willow quantum chip, unveiled in late 2024, serves as a prime example of these advancements. Google’s strong emphasis on error correction is fundamental to achieving fault-tolerant quantum computers. These computers are widely considered necessary to solve complex, real-world problems. Such problems are beyond the capabilities of classical computers. The company claimed that the Willow chip exhibited an exponential decrease in error rates as the number of qubits increased. This is a remarkable achievement. It could substantially accelerate the timeline towards practical quantum computing.
Hartmut Neven is a key leader in Google’s quantum research efforts. He expressed optimism about the future. He predicted that commercial quantum computing applications could become a reality within the next five years. This optimistic outlook indicates quantum technology is maturing rapidly. Google believes it is nearing a stage where it can offer practical utility. Various industries will benefit. This prediction differs from the estimates offered by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. He suggested that truly useful quantum computers still be 15 to 30 years away. This highlights the differing perspectives within the industry regarding quantum computing’s development pace.
In its pursuit of practical quantum applications, Google is actively exploring a hybrid digital-analog quantum simulation approach. This innovative method aims to combine the strengths of both gate-based (digital) and analog quantum techniques. It enhances the efficiency of quantum simulations. It also improves their accuracy. Google integrates the precision of digital control with the flexibility of analog methods. This approach helps them overcome the limitations of relying solely on one approach. This integration could potentially accelerate the development of real-world quantum solutions.
To further provide context to the field’s current state, Google CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted a comparison. He drew a parallel between the present development stage of quantum computing and that of artificial intelligence in the 2010s. He suggested that broadly useful quantum systems are likely still five to ten years away from becoming a reality. This analogy offers a valuable framework. It helps us understand the current trajectory of quantum computing. It also clarifies the expected timeline for its widespread adoption. The comparison to AI’s historical development shows that substantial progress is being made in quantum computing. Still, further research and development are necessary. Only then can the technology reach its full potential for widespread practical applications.
Google launched the XPRIZE Quantum Applications competition with XPRIZE and the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA). This action demonstrates its commitment to fostering innovation. It also shows their interest in identifying tangible applications for quantum technology. This competition lasts three years and has a $5 million global prize. It is designed to incentivize quantum computing applications to solve pressing real-world challenges. The competition also aims to showcase the technology’s potential for practical utility. By offering a substantial prize, Google aims to motivate researchers and developers. They want them to focus on addressing specific, impactful problems using quantum computing resources.
IonQ’s Bold Networking Gambit. Forging Connections in the Quantum Realm
IonQ has demonstrated significant commercial momentum, achieving strong revenue growth throughout 2024 and exceeding its earlier announced financial guidance. This robust revenue growth indicates increasing market traction and customer adoption of IonQ’s trapped-ion quantum computing technology. Surpassing its revenue projections shows IonQ’s success at translating technological advancements into commercial deals. It indicates they are forming strategic partnerships.
A key strategic focus for IonQ is the rapidly evolving field of quantum networking. In line with this, the company has made notable moves, including acquiring all Qubitekk, Inc. assets and announcing a definitive agreement to acquire a controlling stake in ID Quantique. This strategic emphasis on quantum networking puts IonQ in a position to take advantage of the expected increase in demand. There is a growing need for secure quantum communication infrastructure. Quantum networks are essential for interconnecting distributed quantum computers. They enable secure communication protocols. IonQ’s recent acquisitions considerably bolster its capabilities and intellectual property in this critical domain.
Like Rigetti, IonQ was also selected to participate in DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). This selection underscores the U.S. government’s interest in IonQ’s unique approach to quantum computing, which utilizes trapped ions. IonQ’s involvement in QBI will be crucial. It will help define industry-wide benchmarks, which will assess the performance and utility of future utility-scale quantum computers.
Further demonstrating its strong presence in the government and defence sectors, IonQ announced a new $21.1 million project in collaboration with the U.S. Air Force Research Lab (AFRL). This considerable contract aims to advance the boundaries of secure quantum networking technologies. The project specifically focuses on developing groundbreaking capabilities. It aims to establish free-space optical links between ground stations and uncrewed aerial systems (UASs). This effort highlights the practical and impactful applications of IonQ’s networking technology.
IonQ expanded the accessibility of its quantum computing resources. They announced the global availability of their high-performance Forte Enterprise system. This is available through both Amazon Braket and the IonQ Quantum Cloud. IonQ is considerably broadening its market reach by making its quantum computers available on prominent cloud platforms. They are lowering the barrier to entry for a wider range of users. This includes businesses and researchers who can now readily experiment with and utilize IonQ’s advanced quantum hardware.
Despite the impressive revenue growth, IonQ reported net losses and adjusted EBITDA losses for the full year 2024. These losses reflect the considerable ongoing investments the company is making. IonQ invests in research, development, and strategic expansion initiatives. This is particularly true in the area of quantum networking. To support its growth, IonQ announced a potential at-the-market equity offering program. This program could allow it to sell up to $500 million in shares of its common stock.
IonQ has also benefited from the CHIPS Act. Its new quantum computing manufacturing facility is located in Bothell, Washington. This demonstrates the state’s appeal to cutting-edge technology companies.
D-Wave’s Dual Path. Annealing Prowess and Gate-Model Aspirations
D-Wave Quantum has strengthened its financial position by successfully completing a $150 million at-the-market equity offering. This capital infusion gives the company the financial resources it needs to fully implement its strategic plans. The goal is to achieve sustained profitability and generate positive cash flow in the future. A robust cash balance is crucial for companies in the capital-intensive quantum computing industry. It allows for continued investment in research, development, and commercialization efforts.
The company reported record bookings for the fiscal year 2024, reaching $23.9 million, representing a remarkable increase of 128% compared to the previous year. This significant booking growth indicates strong and increasing customer demand for D-Wave’s unique quantum annealing solutions. These record bookings suggest that D-Wave’s specialized technology is finding applications across a diverse range of industries. It addresses complex optimization problems that challenge classical computing methods.
D-Wave achieved a noteworthy milestone by claiming quantum computational supremacy. This was for a real-world materials simulation problem. They utilized their Advantage2 prototype quantum annealer. This milestone shows that D-Wave’s quantum annealing technology can outperform even the most powerful classical supercomputers. It excels in solving certain specific types of computational problems. The peer-reviewed study was published in Science in March 2025. It detailed how D-Wave’s 5,000+ qubit Advantage2 prototype outperformed the Frontier supercomputer.
The study focused on simulating the quantum dynamics of a complex magnetic material. The precise definition and scope of “quantum supremacy” can be debated within the scientific community. However, this achievement provides compelling evidence of the computational power of D-Wave’s approach. It is particularly effective for specific classes of applications. This breakthrough was achieved using a prototype fabricated by SkyWater Technology, highlighting the role of U.S.-based manufacturing in advancing quantum capabilities, aligning with the objectives of the CHIPS Act.
D-Wave is actively advancing its hardware roadmap. The highly anticipated final version of its Advantage2 processor will feature over 4400 qubits. It is expected to be released on its Leap Cloud Service very soon. The company has plans for an Advantage3 processor slated for the 2028 timeframe, which will incorporate a completely new design and support analog-digital quantum computing capabilities. This strategic direction shows that D-Wave is committed to continuously improving its existing quantum annealing technology. The company is also strategically exploring hybrid computing models. It has long-term ambitions in the realm of gate-model quantum computing. This indicates a diversification of its technological portfolio.
Forschungszentrum Jülich, a prominent German national research institute, endorsed D-Wave’s technology. They purchased a D-Wave quantum computer. This acquisition makes Jülich the first high-performance computing center globally to own a D-Wave Advantage system. This acquisition by a major research institution highlights the growing interest in D-Wave’s quantum annealing technology. It also shows recognition within the scientific and high-performance computing communities. Integrating a D-Wave system into a leading supercomputing center will provide researchers with valuable opportunities. They can explore its potential for a wide range of advanced computational applications.
Despite the record-breaking bookings figures, D-Wave’s reported revenue for the fiscal year 2024 remained relatively flat at $8.8 million, consistent with the previous fiscal year. This suggests a potential time lag between securing customer contracts and the actual recognition of revenue. However, the company has provided a positive outlook for the immediate future. It anticipates that its revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 will exceed $10 million. A significant portion of this revenue is expected to come from the sale of an Advantage annealing quantum computer. D-Wave’s ongoing partnership with SkyWater Technology, a U.S.-based semiconductor foundry, highlights the increasing importance of domestic manufacturing. This is critical in advancing quantum computing capabilities. Domestic manufacturing is particularly important in the context of government initiatives like the CHIPS Act. The CHIPS Act aims to bolster U.S. leadership in semiconductor production.
Microsoft. A Bold Leap with Topological Qubits
Microsoft has been a long-term player in the quantum computing research space. In early 2025, they announced a major breakthrough with the unveiling of their “Majorana 1” processor. This processor is the first quantum chip powered by a topological core, utilizing a new class of materials called topoconductors. Microsoft believes this approach offers a more stable path to achieving practical quantum computing. It is more scalable than relying on many traditional qubits and error correction.
The company claims this new architecture provides a clear path to fitting a million qubits on a single chip. They believe this scale is necessary for quantum computers to solve real-world problems. Microsoft’s approach focuses on creating more accurate qubits at the fundamental level. The goal is to reduce the need for extensive error correction. DARPA has also selected them to build a prototype fault-tolerant quantum computer based on their topological qubit innovations.
Microsoft has emphasized the potential of quantum computing in areas like chemistry, biochemistry, and materials science. These advancements have applications in healthcare, manufacturing, and the refinement of artificial intelligence models. They also highlight their “Quantum Ready” program. This program aims to provide businesses with insights and tools. These resources help build hybrid applications and invest in quantum skills. Microsoft is also a leading partner in the United Nations’ International Year of Quantum Science and Technology in 2025. Their advancements with topological qubits are considered a potential game-changer in the quantum computing landscape.
Quantum Policy Undercurrents. Tariffs and the CHIPS Act
Like many technology sectors, the quantum computing industry operates within a complex global supply chain. Proposed tariffs by the Trump administration in 2025 include a universal 10% tariff on all imports. They also propose higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with substantial trade deficits with the U.S. These tariffs introduce a potential element of disruption and increased costs. These tariffs could lead to higher prices for imported components. Prices for specialized hardware, integral to the manufacturing of quantum computing systems, could also rise.
For companies like Rigetti and IonQ, these increased costs could impact their profit margins. They rely on intricate global supply chains for various components. These costs could also affect their R&D budgets. Because the importer typically pays tariffs, U.S.-based quantum computing firms would directly bear the financial burden of tariffs. This could lead to increased prices for their quantum computing products and services. Alternatively, they may need to absorb these additional expenses.
In contrast, the CHIPS Act was enacted in 2022. It aims to strengthen the United States’ leadership in semiconductor manufacturing. It also works to enhance the resilience of its technology supply chains. This legislation could offer benefits to U.S.-based quantum computing companies. It does so by incentivizing domestic production of crucial components. It may also provide access to funding opportunities for research and development initiatives. Rigetti’s decision to establish its own chip fabrication facility in the U.S. could give it an edge in navigating potential supply chain disruptions. It could also help Rigetti deal with tariffs. Moreover, Rigetti will be well-positioned to benefit from the CHIPS Act’s emphasis on domestic manufacturing. Similarly, D-Wave’s ongoing partnership with SkyWater Technology, a U.S.-based semiconductor foundry, aligns with the CHIPS Act’s objectives of promoting domestic capabilities in advanced computing hardware. The CHIPS Act is also seen as a vital opportunity for Washington state’s semiconductor industry. It supports companies like IonQ with its dedicated U.S. quantum computing manufacturing facility in Bothell.
IonQ, in its year-end earnings report for 2024, specifically acknowledged that potential trade wars and the imposition of tariffs could have an adverse impact on its business operations, including its ability to procure necessary products from its suppliers. This statement indicates that IonQ is keenly aware of the potential risks associated with the proposed tariffs and suggests that the company may be actively exploring strategies to mitigate these risks. IonQ’s reliance on specific isotopic materials and its proprietary ion trap technology might render its supply chain particularly susceptible to disruptions caused by trade restrictions.
A recent report by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce underscored the urgent need for the United States to accelerate the commercialization of quantum technology to maintain its competitiveness on the global stage, especially in light of substantial investments being made by countries like China and those in Europe. This implicitly links the importance of fostering a robust domestic quantum industry with the broader geopolitical landscape and the influence of international trade policies.
While Google is a U.S.-based multinational technology conglomerate, the provided research snippets do not offer specific details on the direct impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs or the CHIPS Act on its quantum computing division. Given Google’s extensive resources and highly diversified global supply chain, it might be less vulnerable to the immediate effects of these policies compared to smaller, more specialized quantum computing companies. Microsoft, as another large U.S.-based technology company with a global presence, may also have a diversified supply chain that could mitigate some of the immediate impacts of the tariffs. However, specific details regarding the effect on their quantum computing division are not available in the provided snippets.
Quantum Stock Performance and Key Metrics
The stock performance of publicly traded quantum computing companies, as well as major tech players like Google and Microsoft, has been marked by volatility in early April 2025, coinciding with the announcement and initial implementation of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Stock Price Movements Since “Liberation Day” (April 2, 2025)
| Company (Ticker) | Price on April 2, 2025 | Price on April 4, 2025 | Change (April 2 – April 4) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rigetti Computing (RGTI) | ~$8.49 | ~$7.50 | ↓ ~-11.66% | Rigetti’s stock saw a considerable decline following the “Liberation Day” announcement. This could be attributed to investor concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on its supply chain and overall market sentiment towards smaller, growth-focused companies during times of economic uncertainty. |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | ~$157.04 | ~$145.60 | ↓ ~-7.28% | Google’s stock also experienced a downward trend after the tariff announcement. While the direct impact on their quantum division is unclear, broader market concerns and the potential for increased costs across their hardware business could be contributing factors. |
| Alphabet (GOOG) | ~$158.86 | ~$147.74 | ↓ ~-7.00% | Similar to GOOGL, GOOG also saw a decline. The slightly larger percentage drop might reflect different investor sentiment towards the two classes of Alphabet stock. |
| IonQ (IONQ) | ~$25.05 | ~$20.68 | ↓ ~-17.44% | IonQ experienced the most substantial drop among the listed quantum computing pure-plays. This aligns with the company’s earlier statements about the potential adverse impact of trade wars and tariffs on its supply chain. |
| D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) | ~$7.34 | ~$6.34 | ↓ ~-13.62% | D-Wave’s stock also saw a marked decrease. Despite recent positive news regarding bookings and technological advancements, the broader economic uncertainty and potential supply chain disruptions due to tariffs appear to have weighed on investor sentiment. |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | ~$382.14 | ~$359.84 | ↓ ~-5.84% | Microsoft’s stock also declined following the tariff announcement. While their quantum computing efforts are notable, the company’s vast business across numerous sectors makes it likely that broader market reactions to the tariffs and potential impacts on their hardware and other businesses contributed to this decrease. |
Note: Stock prices are based on closing prices on the respective dates and may vary slightly across different sources.
The stock price movements after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement indicate a negative market reaction. This impacts the quantum computing sector and major technology companies. Investor concerns likely revolve around the potential for increased costs due to tariffs. There are also disruptions in global supply chains. Moreover, such trade policies create overall economic uncertainty. Companies that had previously highlighted their vulnerability to trade tensions, such as IonQ, experienced particularly sharp declines. The long-term effects of these tariffs on the quantum computing market remain to be seen. However, the initial market response suggests caution among investors.
The Quantum Horizon Prospects and Predictions for 2025 and Beyond
2025 is poised to be a period of continued rapid progress in the quantum computing market. Further advancements are anticipated throughout the year. These advancements include qubit technology, error correction methodologies, and the development of novel quantum algorithms. Emphasizing the identification and development of practical applications for quantum computers will be crucial. Demonstrating tangible commercial value will also be essential for the industry’s sustained growth. Attracting further investment depends on these efforts.
Some experts predict that 2025 could be a pivotal year. Quantum computers may leave the lab. They might head to real-world customer deployments. The synergy between quantum computing and artificial intelligence is expected to become increasingly apparent. Quantum technology will enhance AI’s efficiency. AI will play a key role in integrating quantum solutions into practical applications.
Government policies will continue to play a major role in shaping the competitive dynamics. These include international trade tariffs and strategic initiatives like the CHIPS Act. They will influence the overall trajectory of the quantum computing industry. Investor sentiment is likely to stay volatile. The stock performance of publicly listed quantum computing companies will also fluctuate. This is expected as the market continues its journey towards maturity and widespread commercial adoption. The United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. This designation will further amplify global attention and collaboration in this transformative field.
The year 2025 appears to be a pivotal time for the quantum computing market. This period is marked by substantial technological progress. There is increasing commercial interest across various sectors. The ongoing influence of geopolitical and economic factors is also significant. The global race to develop a practical and scalable quantum computer is far from its conclusion.
The industry will closely monitor the individual advancements of key players like Rigetti, Google, IonQ, D-Wave, and Microsoft. They will track the strategic decisions made by these companies. Investors will also be closely observing these developments. The long-term success of these companies will depend not only on their ability to achieve groundbreaking technological innovations. They also need to effectively navigate the complex and evolving policy environment. Additionally, they must demonstrate clear and compelling value propositions to both customers and the investment community. The potential ramifications of Trump’s proposed tariffs on their intricate supply chains will be critical factors to observe. The potential benefits they might derive from government initiatives such as the CHIPS Act will also be important. These will be critical factors to observe in the coming years as the quantum computing market continues its exciting evolution.
