Quantum Technologies Reshape Diplomacy and Geopolitics, Presenting Novel Capabilities for Strategic Defence Innovation

Quantum technologies, encompassing advances in communication, sensing and computing, are rapidly becoming central to geopolitical competition and strategic defence, fundamentally altering established norms of security and diplomacy. Axel Ferrazzini from GovStrat, EPITA and Bocconi University, alongside his colleagues, investigates this evolving landscape, exploring the intersection of quantum capabilities with both diplomatic engagement and global power dynamics. This research demonstrates that leadership in quantum technology now directly translates to geopolitical influence, driving an intense race for dominance alongside new forms of multilateral diplomacy, and highlights the urgent need for strategic decision-making. The team’s analysis reveals that while these technologies vary in maturity, accelerating progress means current encrypted communications may soon be vulnerable to decryption by adversaries, demanding immediate attention from policymakers and industry leaders.

Unlike previous technological advances, quantum introduces novel capabilities that fundamentally disrupt established norms of security, intelligence, and defence. This research investigates the strategic imperatives for defence and security in this emerging quantum era, focusing on how technological development interacts with diplomatic strategy and geopolitical realities. It examines how quantum capabilities reshape the competitive landscape, creating both opportunities and vulnerabilities for nations, and proposes strategies for mitigating risks and harnessing the potential benefits of these technologies. The study assesses the implications of quantum communication for secure information transfer, the potential of quantum sensing for enhanced surveillance and detection, and the disruptive impact of quantum computing on cryptography and data security. It further explores the diplomatic challenges associated with regulating quantum technologies, preventing proliferation, and fostering international cooperation in this rapidly evolving field.

Intelligence and diplomatic engagement are crucial in navigating this new landscape. This strategic analysis explores the evolving quantum landscape through the dual lenses of diplomacy and geopolitics, with specific implications for defence leaders, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. Leading powers now recognise quantum as a domain where technological leadership directly translates to geopolitical influence, compelling an intense race for dominance alongside new forms of multilateral diplomacy aimed at managing both risks and opportunities. Quantum technologies do not all present the same level of immediate challenge.

Quantum Technologies Demand Long Term Strategy

This extensive document provides a comprehensive analysis of the strategic implications of quantum technologies for defence, policy, and industry. It argues that quantum represents a fundamental shift, not just an incremental improvement, and requires proactive, long-term investment and planning. The core argument centres on the fact that quantum is a strategic imperative, a geopolitical competition with long-term consequences, and ignoring it risks falling behind. A long-term vision is crucial, as quantum capabilities will mature over decades, requiring sustained investment and planning beyond typical budget cycles. Proactive action is needed, as delaying investment or planning will make it increasingly difficult to catch up.

Key areas of focus and recommendations include integrating quantum into strategic planning for defence and government leaders, treating it as a core strategic domain with dedicated resources. They should balance prioritising migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography while exploring Quantum Key Distribution for critical communications, and ensure NATO interoperability by maintaining secure and compatible allied communication systems. Industry and standards leaders should design systems that can quickly adapt to new cryptographic algorithms as quantum threats evolve, communicate PQC migration plans transparently with customers, and actively participate in shaping quantum standards to gain a competitive advantage. Research and academic institutions should expand programs to train a skilled quantum workforce and encourage open scientific exchange while protecting dual-use applications.

Specific technological areas and implications include Post-Quantum Cryptography, which is critical to protect current and future communications from quantum computer attacks, requiring migration to begin now. Quantum Key Distribution offers potentially unbreakable encryption, but has limitations in range and scalability. Quantum Sensing offers the potential for revolutionary advancements in detection, imaging, and navigation. Quantum Computing, while still years away from widespread application, promises to solve problems currently intractable for classical computers. Key concerns and challenges include ensuring access to critical materials and technologies needed for quantum development, balancing the need to protect sensitive technologies with the desire to foster innovation, addressing a lack of skilled quantum scientists and engineers, and navigating intensifying geopolitical competition. The document emphasizes a holistic approach, calling for sustained investment in quantum research, development, and deployment, collaboration between governments, industry, and academia, strategic foresight to anticipate the future implications of quantum technologies, and resilience by building systems that can withstand quantum attacks and disruptions.

In essence, the document is a call to action for governments, industry, and academia to prepare for a future where quantum technologies will fundamentally reshape the geopolitical landscape. It stresses that proactive planning and investment are essential to secure a competitive advantage and mitigate the risks associated with this transformative technology.

Quantum Technologies, Strategy, and National Security

This analysis demonstrates how quantum technologies represent a fundamental shift in strategic competition, extending beyond incremental improvements to introduce entirely new capabilities across communication, sensing, computing, and related fields. The research highlights a dual nature to these technologies, offering potential for international scientific collaboration alongside significant challenges to national security, creating a complex diplomatic landscape. Specifically, the investigation shows how quantum communication, utilising principles like quantum key distribution, fundamentally alters established intelligence practices by enabling secure communication with guaranteed detection of eavesdropping attempts. The study acknowledges that while quantum technologies offer substantial advantages, their operational maturity varies across different domains.

Current efforts focus on mitigating the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat through the development and implementation of post-quantum cryptography standards, recognising the vulnerability of presently encrypted data to future quantum computing capabilities. Future work, as evidenced by ongoing initiatives in China and the European Union, centres on developing and deploying quantum network infrastructure, signalling a transition from theoretical advantage to operational reality and requiring continued attention from defence leaders, policymakers, and industry stakeholders.