Metal Demand and Emissions in China’s Vehicle Fleet Reduced by 64.3% with New Analysis

The rapid expansion of China’s private vehicle ownership presents a significant challenge to global decarbonisation efforts, driving increased demand for materials and escalating associated carbon emissions. Junhong Liu from Chongqing University, Nan Zhou from University of California, Berkeley, and Kairui You from Beijing Institute of Technology, alongside Minda Ma, address this issue by developing a comprehensive framework to analyse metal flows and embodied emissions within China’s vehicle fleet from 2000 to 2070. Their research projects a peak vehicle fleet of up to 507 million by mid-century, dominated by new energy vehicles, and forecasts cumulative metal demand reaching nearly 3000 million tonnes over the next five decades. Crucially, the team demonstrates that strategic demand management, combined with enhanced recycling practices, can substantially reduce emissions and potentially close material cycles, offering a systemic pathway towards a circular economy and deep decarbonisation of China’s vehicle sector, with implications for other rapidly developing economies.

Metal use efficiency modelling forms the basis of an investigation into China’s private passenger vehicle fleet. The research establishes a framework to analyse metal requirements throughout the vehicle lifecycle, from manufacturing and use to end-of-life processing. This approach considers the roles of various metals in passenger vehicle production and assesses opportunities to improve resource efficiency. The study examines scenarios and measures designed to enhance metal use, focusing on the total stock of vehicles, metal demand, recycled metal flows, and associated embodied carbon emissions between 2000 and 2060. Analysis incorporates powertrain type and vehicle segment, specifically class C sedans, to provide a detailed assessment of the Chinese private passenger vehicle fleet.

Demand Reduction and Circular Transport Systems

Decarbonizing the transportation sector requires more than simply switching to electric vehicles. Achieving deep decarbonization necessitates a holistic approach that includes reducing overall vehicle miles travelled and promoting alternative transportation, alongside material efficiency, circular economy principles, critical material management, and systemic thinking. This involves considering the entire lifecycle of vehicles and materials, from resource extraction to end-of-life management.

China’s Vehicle Fleet, Metal Demand and Recycling Potential

This research presents a dynamic material flow analysis, projecting vehicle fleet growth and associated metal demands and emissions in China from 2000 to 2070. Scientists project the vehicle fleet will peak at between 327 and 507 million vehicles by mid-century, with new energy vehicles becoming dominant in both usage and end-of-life flows by the 2040s. The study meticulously quantified cumulative metal demand, forecasting a total of 1914 to 2990 million tonnes over the next five decades. Importantly, the team measured that 879 to 1320 million tonnes of these metals could be supplied from secondary sources under current conditions.

Experiments revealed that technology-focused strategies significantly improve recycling rates, enabling secondary steel to completely satisfy manufacturing requirements. Furthermore, the data shows that aluminum and copper cycles can approach near-closure by 2070 with enhanced recycling technologies. Correspondingly, scientists calculated cumulative embodied carbon emissions from vehicle metals will range from 4958 to 9218 megatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2070. However, implementing technological upgrades can reduce these emissions by 1051 to 1619 megatonnes, demonstrating a substantial mitigation potential.

Analysis of collaborative scenarios demonstrated that demand management strategies account for 64.3% of total emission reductions, while technology-oriented measures gain importance over the long term. The work confirms that unchecked demand growth can negate the benefits of technological advancements, emphasizing the need for integrated strategies. Measurements confirm that a systemic and transferable framework is now available to guide circular economy development and decarbonization efforts not only in China, but also in other rapidly developing economies.

China’s Vehicle Fleet, Metal Demand and Recycling

This research presents a comprehensive analysis of material flows and embodied carbon emissions within China’s growing fleet of private passenger vehicles, projecting trends from 2000 to 2070. The team developed a dynamic framework to model vehicle stocks and metal usage, specifically steel, aluminum, and copper, and to assess the impact of both reducing vehicle demand and improving material efficiency. Results indicate the vehicle fleet will likely peak mid-century, increasingly comprised of new energy vehicles, with cumulative metal demand reaching substantial levels over the next five decades, a significant portion of which could be met through recycling. The study demonstrates that strategic improvements in recycling processes can substantially close material loops, potentially allowing secondary steel to fully satisfy manufacturing needs and bringing aluminum and copper cycles closer to complete closure by 2070.

Importantly, the team found that technological advancements alone are insufficient to fully address carbon emissions, as unchecked growth in vehicle demand can offset the benefits of improved efficiency. The most effective pathway to decarbonization involves a combined approach of managing demand and enhancing supply-side technologies, achieving the lowest projected emissions when both strategies are implemented concurrently. The authors acknowledge that the projections rely on assumptions about future technological development and consumer behavior, which introduce inherent uncertainties. Future research could focus on refining these assumptions and exploring the impact of different policy interventions on both demand and supply. Nevertheless, this work establishes a robust and transferable framework for guiding circular economy initiatives and achieving deep decarbonization within vehicle fleets, not only in China but also in other economies facing similar challenges.